The Risk Today:
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EurUsd The broad move that started on the 28th of January saw it’s 50% retracement tested and broken during the night. While risk appetite is improving, an HIA could be a very big positive for the USD if passed. 1.2967 then 1.2945 are the initial support, while strong support holds at 1.2855 (23.60% retracement line on broad move and trend-line for range traded from 2nd to 4th of Feb). On the upside, 1.3090 is a major resistance as it coincides with the 61.80% retracement. Moving higher 1.3178 is the next level to watch for as this was tested several times on the way down from 1.3327.
GbpUsd The cable has seen its price action contract and trade a narrower range since the beginning of February. Strong resistance stands at 1.4500 (Feb 1st high). Nearer to current prices we see 1.4415 and 1.4486 as resistances – feeding on data from the 1.4182 – 1.4486 move from yesterday. Below 1.4326 stands as an initial support, which gives way to 1.4167 levels, further Sterling weakness could pave the way for sub 1.40 levels – Cable continues to be under pressure.
UsdJpy While the Yen has been bucking the trend as of late sneaky attempts at intervention are creeping in – the yen’s advance slowed recently but the recent weakening hasn’t held, Strong support stands at 87.13 – levels never seen since mid 1995 however closer to market price we are looking at 88.33 and 88.80. We see 90.00, 90.89 and 91.20 as initial resistances, however a strong breakout would test 94.65 (Jan 6 high).
UsdChf The swissy has risen steadily recently, the strong bullish trend that took us from 1.0892 to 1.1720 during the month of February sees multiple support levels. 1.1099 is a very strong level we tested 4 times last month before the pair moved higher, the next key level stands at 1.1315. In the nearer term 1.1418 looks to hold if we move higher as we’ve tested this level several times yesterday and today. On the upside the pair is capped at 1.172 (Jan 23 high), closer we see 1.1681 as a strong resistance 0.9646 – 1.2309 move from May 2008 to November 2008.
