The Risk Today:

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EurUsd Friday’s firm break out of the 9-month descending triangle has seen the pair trading as high as 1.3671 (initial resistance) as we embark on a correction period, 38.20% retracement at 1.3567 is a soft support but focus will be on the 50.00% mark at 1.3535 – at which point the pair should resume it’s bullish trend – risk appetite continues to weaken the dollar. On the upside – past the initial resistance – we see the March high of 1.3756 as a strong resistance, a push past this level will home in 1.3971.

GbpUsd Much of the same market dynamic as the EURUSD, widespread dollar weakness is driving moves as risk appetite improves. This said, the retracement has been more pronounced, actually passing the 50.00% retracement at 1.5110 where we are trading at time of writing. A broad bull signal continues to prevail however, a retracement as low as 1.4969 would mark a return to levels before Friday’s large moves and where we see strong support. On the upside the pair should be capped for now by the 1.5250 highs seen on Friday night.

UsdJpy Double-top head and shoulders finalizes this morning with a neckline at 98.24 (which is now initial resistance) – with a strong (double top resistance) at 99.58. On the downside, we briefly tested but bounced off the 50.00% retracement (of the bull move started end of April) at 97.60, further Yen gains or return of risk aversion sets sights on 97.14 and 95.62.

UsdChf The Swiss currency gained substantially against the Greenback – up 2.52% since the beginning of May. Further dollar weakness could see the pair regain it’s parity pricing seen last year. Large move on Friday is retracing now but has failed to confidently break the 23.60% level at 1.1091, we see scope for a correction to 1.1134 or even 1.1169 which would be the 50.00% fib level. On the downside 1.1000 is a crucial psy level. 1.0550 stands as long-term support.