The Risk Today
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EurUsd The pair was able to rally off the 1.3200 lvl yesterday. Importantly the upper extremity of the channel is also the extremity of the broad trend (wedge) we have been trading for over a year now. This tentative breakout needs to confirm 1.3386 (April 13th high) before we can consider a serious – short term – bull. We currently prefer herding with the “green shoots” hypothesis rather than a definite change in general trend. FOMC bullishness and good data out of the U.S failed to shift risk sentiment. Initial support at 1.3290 and on the upside today’s moves higher target 1.3360 (channel resistance) then the psychological 1.3500.

GbpUsd Positive risk sentiment (USD selling) continues to drive Sterling higher against the dollar. Next resistance at 1.4963 (6-April high), a strong push past this level would target 1.5071 via the psychological 1.5000. On the downside 1.4888 is initial resistance, while 1.4731 (5 & 21 day ma) would mark a strong support.

UsdJpy The pair was able to easily take out trendline resistance at 98.70 and is focused on the psychological 100 lvl. We expect a short period of consolidation then a continuation of bullish momentum and a test of resistance.

UsdChf Despite the frequent spikes under 1.1300 the pair has been unable to close below its 200 day MA (1.1374). However failure to move above yesterday 1.1433 session high and further consolidation around 1.1370 will be a bearish signal and preparation for a move towards 1.1160 horizontal support.