The Risk Today:

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EurUsd Volatility continues to see the pair oscillate in a 1.3214 – 1.3439 range. Head and shoulders started in May see’s a neckline at 1.3251 which we tested this morning, a retest of this level would see the pair head lower and aim for bottom of the range for support. 50% retracement on resumption of the bull move on April 28th stands at 1.3200, a break of this level would see the pair head for 1.2964. On the upside the continuing upward channel would target 1.3484, via 50% retracement of counter wave at 1.3341.

GbpUsd Strong bull continues, BoE meeting today keeping rates the same could provide further impetus for gains - however a substantial buying of Gilts will weigh on the Sterling. resistance at 1.5163 as we break a broad neckline at 1.5097 which now becomes initial resistance Next target on the upside is 1.5397 – Jan 8th high. On the downside stops to be triggered at 1.5015 et 1.4923 after initial support stated above.

UsdJpy We see strong resistance at 99.65 (shoulders top) which indicates a turn in trend however we also see impetus from fundamentals for further yen weakness as risk sentiment improves and traders head away from the Yen as a haven. A break above initial resistance would cap moves at 103.33 though the recent high at 101.49. On the downside initial support stands at recent consolidation point at 98.66.

UsdChf triple top in the 1.1432 area points to further Swissie gains are probable as the May 4th gains by the Swiss Franc have been erased, however the move fails at previous resistance. While in the long term we can expect the pair higher, we are set to test further lows at 1.1250 levels.